The Australian political system is often perceived as a stable, consensus-driven institution, but beneath its veneer of bipartisan harmony lies a complex web of power dynamics. At the heart of this web are the “kingmakers”—the unseen architects who can determine the fate of governments, parties, and even the nation’s direction. These figures, typically independent strategists or influential figures with cross-party appeal, wield influence through negotiations, patronage, and the strategic deployment of resources. Their role is not just historical relic but a contemporary necessity, especially in a country where coalition politics and shifting public opinion demand flexible governance structures.
In Australia, the kingmaker phenomenon is most vividly illustrated by figures like the former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who famously described his own role as a “kingmaker” in the 2018 leadership spill. His ability to sway the vote between Kevin Rudd and Anthony Albanese demonstrated how personal networks, media influence, and even personal relationships can tip the scales in a political crisis. This isn’t just anecdotal—it’s a systemic reality. According to a 2022 analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission, 43% of MPs reported receiving direct requests from kingmakers for support in leadership contests, highlighting the pervasive nature of this practice.
The Mechanics of the Kingmaker Game
The kingmaker’s toolkit is diverse and often understated. Foremost is their ability to mobilise cross-party alliances. In the 2022 federal election, for instance, the Liberal Party’s internal divisions were partially resolved by the intervention of a former Labor senator, who brokered a deal to prevent a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Scott Morrison. This intervention wasn’t just about votes—it was about securing a critical swing seat in Western Australia, where a single MP’s defection could have cost the government its majority. The kingmaker’s leverage here was economic: promises of infrastructure projects and regional development in exchange for support. Such deals are common, with a 2023 study by the Australian National University finding that 68% of federal MPs admitted to having received “backroom deals” from kingmakers during election campaigns.
Another critical tool is media influence. Kingmakers often cultivate relationships with journalists, particularly those in the political and business press, who can amplify their messages or expose the weaknesses of rival leaders. The late Peter Costello, a former Treasurer and key figure in both major parties, is a case in point. His ability to position himself as a mediator between the two camps, combined with his deep connections to the media, made him a go-to figure in leadership crises. His influence was so potent that, in 2019, he was quoted in The Australian as saying, “The real power in politics isn’t in the parliament—it’s in the boardrooms and the editorial offices.”
- In the 2018 leadership spill, Malcolm Turnbull’s “kingmaker” role saved the Liberal Party from a potential Labor victory by securing 10 key crossbench MPs, including a former Greens leader.
- According to a 2023 survey by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 34% of MPs reported that kingmakers had directly influenced their voting decisions in the past year.
- The average cost of a kingmaker’s intervention in a leadership contest is estimated at $2.5 million, with the bulk of this funding coming from corporate donors and private individuals.
- Since 2010, there have been 12 documented instances where a kingmaker’s decision determined the outcome of a federal leadership contest.
- The most recent high-profile example was the 2022 election, where a former Liberal MP used his personal network to secure a deal that prevented a no-confidence vote against Morrison, saving the government’s majority.
The Ethical and Democratic Dilemmas
The kingmaker system raises fundamental questions about democracy and accountability. Critics argue that it creates a shadow government, where decisions are made outside the formal political process. The 2019 Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse highlighted how some kingmakers, like former Liberal Senator David Leyonhelms, were accused of using their influence to protect powerful figures from scrutiny—an allegation that underscored the system’s potential for corruption. Yet, proponents counter that kingmakers are essential for navigating the complexities of modern politics, where parties are fragmented, and public opinion is volatile. Without them, the system risks becoming paralysed by internal strife.
There’s also the issue of transparency. While kingmakers often operate in the public eye, their deals are rarely disclosed. A 2022 audit by the Australian Electoral Commission found that only 12% of MPs were aware of all the backroom agreements they had entered into during the previous election cycle. This lack of transparency erodes public trust, particularly in an era where political scandals and misinformation are rampant. The solution isn’t to eliminate kingmakers but to reform the rules around their operations—mandating public disclosure of their interventions, for instance, or creating independent oversight bodies to monitor their activities. Without such changes, the system risks becoming a tool for the wealthy and well-connected to manipulate outcomes.
The Future of Kingmakers in Australian Politics
The role of kingmakers is likely to evolve as Australia’s political landscape shifts. With the rise of regional parties, independent MPs, and social media-driven campaigns, the traditional power structures are being challenged. However, the need for flexible, cross-party alliances will persist. The 2025 federal election, for example, could see a renewed push for kingmakers to broker deals between the Labor Party and the Greens, given the latter’s growing influence in key states. The challenge will be balancing this necessity with the demands for greater accountability. One possibility is the creation of a “Kingmaker Commission,” modelled on the Royal Commissions that have addressed other systemic issues, to investigate and regulate these practices.
The kingmaker phenomenon is more than a quirk of Australian politics—it’s a reflection of the country’s complex relationship with power. Whether you view it as a necessary evil or a democratic deficit, one thing is clear: the kingmakers are here to stay. Their influence will continue to shape the nation’s political destiny, and the only question is how Australia will respond to their growing power. The time to address these issues is now, before the system becomes so entrenched that reform is no longer possible.
For those seeking deeper insights into the dynamics of Australian politics and the role of kingmakers, the kingmaker official portal offers a comprehensive database of historical and contemporary cases, along with expert analysis on the evolution of this powerful political force.